Great post, with lots to think about, thanks. One way to frame the debate that you're proposing: First, would Putin have invaded Ukraine at some point regardless of whether there were weapons & assistance from NATO, since Ukraine was drifting westward even while he considered Ukraine to really be a part of Russia and had already started …
Great post, with lots to think about, thanks. One way to frame the debate that you're proposing: First, would Putin have invaded Ukraine at some point regardless of whether there were weapons & assistance from NATO, since Ukraine was drifting westward even while he considered Ukraine to really be a part of Russia and had already started thinking about his legacy in a more imperialist mindset? If Putin would have invaded in either case, the weapons now in Ukraine by which the country is defending itself are making the invasion-against-international-law much more costly for Russia. What will the effect of a far-more-costly-than-expected invasion have on Putin's ambitions in the region after this war--i.e. will they check his ambitions more than if Ukraine had been poorly defended and ill-equipped and easy to topple and take over? Will the weapons and Ukraine's resistance allow Ukraine to keep more of its sovereign national territory in the end than it would have otherwise? And, most relevant for the circuitous connection between Ukraine and Taiwan that you're thinking about: Will China seeing the trouble Russia is having fighting against an armed Ukraine now be more deterred by an armed Taiwan (than it would have before Russia's difficulties in achieving its invasion aims)? After all, China's decision-making regarding Taiwan is different from Russia's decision to invade Ukraine precisely in that China is seeing the example of how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has gone; China will be factoring into its decision how many casualties and losses Russia has experienced fighting an armed Ukraine, as well as the toll of reputational loss and sanctions burden on Russia due to the invasion. (Another version of this last question that stays with Russia: would a Putin with the foresight of how things are going now still have decided to invade initially, i.e. had he known how an armed Ukraine would defend itself? China vis-a-vis Taiwan is right now more like this fictional Putin with foresight would have been early this year vis-a-vis Ukraine.)
Great post, with lots to think about, thanks. One way to frame the debate that you're proposing: First, would Putin have invaded Ukraine at some point regardless of whether there were weapons & assistance from NATO, since Ukraine was drifting westward even while he considered Ukraine to really be a part of Russia and had already started thinking about his legacy in a more imperialist mindset? If Putin would have invaded in either case, the weapons now in Ukraine by which the country is defending itself are making the invasion-against-international-law much more costly for Russia. What will the effect of a far-more-costly-than-expected invasion have on Putin's ambitions in the region after this war--i.e. will they check his ambitions more than if Ukraine had been poorly defended and ill-equipped and easy to topple and take over? Will the weapons and Ukraine's resistance allow Ukraine to keep more of its sovereign national territory in the end than it would have otherwise? And, most relevant for the circuitous connection between Ukraine and Taiwan that you're thinking about: Will China seeing the trouble Russia is having fighting against an armed Ukraine now be more deterred by an armed Taiwan (than it would have before Russia's difficulties in achieving its invasion aims)? After all, China's decision-making regarding Taiwan is different from Russia's decision to invade Ukraine precisely in that China is seeing the example of how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has gone; China will be factoring into its decision how many casualties and losses Russia has experienced fighting an armed Ukraine, as well as the toll of reputational loss and sanctions burden on Russia due to the invasion. (Another version of this last question that stays with Russia: would a Putin with the foresight of how things are going now still have decided to invade initially, i.e. had he known how an armed Ukraine would defend itself? China vis-a-vis Taiwan is right now more like this fictional Putin with foresight would have been early this year vis-a-vis Ukraine.)